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經濟學人下載:彙率操縱(1)

Source: Economist    2019-08-09  我要投稿   論壇   Favorite  

音頻下載[點擊右鍵另存爲]

The southern shrimp alliance, an industry association based in Florida, is angling for tariffs.
總部位于佛羅裏達的一家産業協會—南方養蝦聯盟正試圖征收關稅。

It has tried repeatedly to have foreign competitors harpooned with duties. Now some new opportunities have surfaced.
它曾多次試圖讓外國競爭對手被征收關稅。現在一些新的機會出現了。

The Department of Commerce is proposing a rule enabling tariffs on imports from currency manipulators. Crustacean-catchers are keen.
美國商務部提出一項規定,將允許對來自彙率操縱的進口商品征收關稅。甲殼動物捕手們很敏銳。

American businesses disgruntled by what they see as distorted exchange rates may soon have more weapons at hand.
美國企業對他們所認爲的扭曲的彙率感到不滿,他們或許很快便有更多的武器在手。

After weeks of fulmination by President Donald Trump on Twitter about countries
數周以來唐納德·特朗普總統一直在推特上對那些依靠人爲手段

that keep their currencies artificially weak to America's detriment,
讓本國貨幣貨幣保持弱勢且對美國不利的國家表示暴怒,

financial analysts are speculating that the Treasury might use its Exchange Stabilisation Fund (ESF) to weaken the dollar.
此後金融分析師猜測,美國財政部可能會利用其外彙平准基金(ESF)削弱美元。

Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic presidential hopeful, has also called for the dollar to be managed to promote exports,
民主黨總統候選人伊麗莎白·沃倫也呼籲管控美元以促進出口,

referring to proposals by Fred Bergsten and Joseph Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank.
她提到了智囊團彼得森國際經濟研究所的佛雷德·伯格斯登以及瑟夫·加農的提議。

The chatter is odd in one respect: other countries' currency manipulation does not seem to be the reason for the dollar's strength.
這種喋喋不休在某方面很奇怪:其他國家的彙率操作似乎不是美元強勁的原因。

Although an IMF report published on July 17th said that the dollar was overvalued by 6-12%,
雖然IMF在7月17日發表的報告表明美元被高估了6-12%,

it also said that foreign-exchange intervention had been playing "a much more muted role in recent years".
但報告也指出外彙幹預在“近年來發揮的作用要溫和得多”。

America's loose fiscal policy—and the tighter stance of countries like Germany and the Netherlands—are more obvious culprits.
美國寬松的財政政策—以及德國和荷蘭等國更爲強硬的立場—是更明顯的罪魁禍首。

However misdirected the current ire, the multilateral system for restraining currency manipulation is indeed toothless.
無論當前的憤怒如何被誤導,抑制貨幣操縱的多邊體系確實沒有多大作用。

In 2007 the IMF refrained from declaring China a currency cheat,
2007年,IMF並沒有宣布中國存在貨幣欺騙,

although it was running a current-account surplus of 10% of GDP and buying around $2bn in dollar-denominated assets each business day.
雖然其經常賬戶盈余占GDP的10%,並且每個營業日都會購買約20億美元的以美元標價的資産。

Preparing for a future bout of competitive devaluation might not be a bad idea.
爲未來一輪的競爭性貶值做准備或許並不是一件壞事。

But the proposals floating around Washington would be ripe for abuse.
但圍繞華盛頓周圍的提議將有可能會被濫用。


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